 India's match against Australia was rained off in the 43rd over of the
Australian innings at Centurion. This meant that both, India and Australia
got one point off the game. Australia is now at 3 points from two games after
getting two points from the match against West Indies, whereas India has one point
from two matches, with one loss to Pakistan and one abandoned match against the
Aussies.
This means that for India to qualify, the Pakistanis will need to beat Australia
in their last game. And then, India will need to defeat West Indies in
their last game by a big enough margin to go through to the semi-finals. However,
if Australia manage to beat Pakistan, or if the game is abandoned due to rains,
then Australia will join Pakistan in the semi-finals from this group, whereas
India will have to pack their bags and go home.
So let us talk about the worst case scenario for India. If Australia loses
to Pakistan off the last ball of the game, or if they lose to Pakistan
by one run, it will mean that the net run rate for Australia will be 0.49. So,
in order to overcome this, the Indians will have to have an NRR of 0.50. To
be able to do this, if West Indies score 150, India will need to score the runs
in 29.3 overs! Similarly, if West Indies score 200, the Indians will need to
get the runs in 31.1 overs to qualify for the semi-finals.
The target gets tougher for India depending on the number of runs the West
Indian side scores. So if they score 250, it is 50 more than the previous example,
but India will get only 8 or 9 more balls to qualify (250 in 32.3 overs)!
If Australia lose by a run or off the last ball, and if India bats first
and scores 300, they will have to restrict the West Indian side to 195 or less
to qualify for the semi-finals.
Let us take a realistic example. Say, Pakistan bats first and scores 280 and
the Aussies end up 30 runs short of the target. In this case, if India bats
first and scores 300, they will need to restrict the West Indian side to 225
to go through to the semi-finals. Similarly, in the same example if West Indies
bat first and get to 225, the Indians will need to scores those runs in 36.3
overs to win a place in the semi-finals.
Of course, all of that will come to nothing if Australia wins or the match
is rained off.
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